It was two months ago when the Villa attacker was standing on the pitch at Sunderland, looking confused while Unai Emery admonished him for not reading a pass in behind. During that period, as the club failed to win in six, it wasn't clear whether his performances were a symptom or the source for the team's wider issues.
“As Rogers swept in his second… Emery ripped off his thick padded coat, spread his arms and roared.”
In the latest match, in contrast, the sideline response was decidedly more positive. When Rogers drilled in his second to reclaim the lead for Villa, the Spanish tactician discarded his coat, opened his arms and shouted in triumph. The team were on their way to a 10th successive win and despite not winning their initial half-dozen games, now sit just three points adrift of the leaders Arsenal.
Are They Legitimate Title Contenders?
That’s a particularly tough query to address. The historical record, a general sense of Villa, suggests not. Furthermore, they've rarely been completely commanding in many games, despite the fact the victories have piled up.
According to statistical analysis, twice all season have Villa had an xG notably superior than their opponents. For a team who have strung together a ten-match winning streak, Villa seem curiously susceptible – but right now the margins are going in their favour.
The Winning Formula
The prevailing tactic looks like to exchange chances with an opponent and wait for their talisman to save the day with some crisp finishes. This occurred against Leeds, it happened in London, and once more when facing Manchester United.
Rogers' first goal came from a brilliant finish, arced precisely inside the goal frame from a wide position. His brace-completing goal proved to be a somewhat messier replica of his first as he seized on a pass from Watkins.
“Rogers’ right foot is now akin to Robben’s legendary left: forewarned does not mean forearmed, and stopping him is another matter entirely.”
Is It Sustainable?
Reason suggests otherwise. Against United, Manchester United managed more shots and more direct attempts. The team has secured their last eight victories by a single goal. They have allowed goals in nearly all of those matches.
Regression to the mean might be the greatest opponent they must confront as the season progresses. Their key man, almost certainly, cannot maintain thrashing the ball past despairing goalkeepers forever.
A Case for Belief
Perhaps there is a different scenario whereby, instead of results trending towards performances, the level of play rises to match the results. Vital cogs may yet return to peak condition.
- Ollie Watkins might resume finding the net regularly.
- The winger may rediscover the force he showed at Borussia Dortmund.
- Tyrone Mings and Pau Torres are set to regain fitness, fortifying an occasionally vulnerable backline.
Perhaps there is in that the seeds for a sustained push, but they surely can continue to depend solely on one man.
Relishing the Unlikely
However, nobody expected this. Nobody thought Aston Villa would sit in the top three for the holidays. And most definitely two months ago, few could imagine the young forward by the end of the year would be leading a hunt for the title while establishing himself as a crucial player for the national team.
This remarkable period must be cherished precisely because it seems so surreal. As Rogers faced the North End at the final whistle conducting the cheers, he appeared to be relishing every moment. As he deserves to. These spells do not happen often and must be appreciated.
