Ten years after the UK entered into a hurried referendum that split the country and unleashed chaos, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two prominent writers from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly fraught and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can come out of the blue and can build support very quickly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have analysed the governmental, financial and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the matter with a series of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everybody, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose results have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an highly divided society where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side are uncertain precisely what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is imminent, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, leaving it unclear if and when there will be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has masked the lack of serious debate, said McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the concrete planning which may surpass that to achieve it has largely not occurred. Much has gone on in universities but very few politicians or advocates are willing to participate with the fundamentals. For instance, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, no writer advocates unity or the status quo. Both composes two essays that seek neutrality in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case against, marshalling economic and societal data, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Arguments cover flags and symbols, taxes, health services, retirement funds, public liabilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The objective is to educate and provoke discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there is still lacking a dialogue," said the writer. "Discussion implies an acceptance of the concept that there may exist valid points on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they support unity but oppose greater financial contributions or adopting a new flag to reflect unionists' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to work out what the plan from nationalist groups is aside from just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist believes a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it could happen unexpectedly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a poor or a feckless secretary of state who declares: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have plausible, justified perspectives, he stated. "One side will succeed in this matter and the other side will ultimately not succeed but each side has has something to acquire from the opposing viewpoints."
Appeal for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster must participate in the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish issue."
